Modelling visit frequencies to the nature of Denmark

The objective of the study is to construct a model of the number of car borne visitors to the natural environment – forests, beaches, and the remainder untilled landscape. The model, which is implemented in and heavily dependent on GIS, is based on an constrained accessibility model, constrained by the amount of available resources, to cope with intervening opportunities. The ingoing variables includes population, summer houses, camping sites etc., amount of existing natural resources, and the distribution of the populations responses regarding frequencies of different activities in terms of travel distances and type of nature at the destination. By means of regression analysis the model result (combined with local amenity variables) is compared to registration of the number of cars at selected parking lots in the nature. The assessment of effect of changing scale is a central point of the analysis. The resulting predictive model includes the accessibility, terrain-form, distance to the coast, and distance to a location covered by an information leaflet.